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On the record · Seeking Alpha · June 6, 2008

Stimulus Checks Don’t Even Offset A Year Of Non-CPI Inflation

By David Roskoph. Originally published on Seeking Alpha, June 6, 2008. Reprinted with permission.

Historical commentary. Written in 2008, during David’s prior advisory practice, and reproduced as originally published. It is not a forecast of future markets and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, including any security or position named in it. Positions described were the author’s at the time and do not describe any Sonrise Opportunity portfolio. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The first stimulus checks are being distributed with great fanfare; as if they had real substance. At best the money, which took us further into debt, will offset a fraction of the damage to individuals from the Fiat Reserve Bank’s [FRB] massive sale of put options to secure their Wall Street patrons.

To gauge the stimulus’ ability to restore a flagging economy - First, click your heels together and pretend that the recipient’s wages have kept pace with the official CPI figures. Then forget their a-historical debt burden and contemporary asset deflation. Finally, do the unpleasant math to calculate the cost of those ever-so-conveniently excluded items of food and energy.

Let’s look at an average family of four as described by the US Department of Agriculture (couple 30-50 with young kids). Their prescribed “liberal” food bill in June of 2007 was $897 per month. It now stands at $975 (compounding the latest figures for 4/08). That’s an annual increase of $936 per family.

The average adult uses 500 gallons of gasoline per year. The cost of unleaded gas in June 2007 stood at $3.13 per gallon. One year later it has risen to $3.93 per gallon. That’s an annual increase of $400 per person or $800 per couple.

If both parents work, the family will receive ($600 + $600 + $300 + $300) = $1,800

While the cost of their non–CPI living has consumed most of it ($936 + $800) = $1,736

How poetic – the answer is: $64!

This rebate will have NO simulative effect as it barely compensates tax-payers for the last 12 months of non-CPI inflation. This accomplishes nothing more than returning to individuals, a diluted share of the buying power they lost in the Sub-prime bail out; a dividend for their magnanimous albeit involuntary investment. Through the Federal Reserve system, we all underwrite the titans of capitalism. This token rebate is an opiate to calm a middle class facing extinction.

See all 23 articles, 2007–2011

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