Our economy is often described as a Goldilocks Economy by the non-stop cheerleaders of Wall Street. They say it’s not hot enough to cause an inflationary spiral and not cold enough to raise unemployment and stunt consumption; just right.
Only in this fairy tale, the three bears arriving back from their stroll are 1) Papa Bear – the implosion of the latest round of creative financing, 2) Mama Bear – the relentless march of energy costs and 3) Baby Bear – inflation.
Loose credit looks incredibly prosperous for a while until you realize that all those widgets you sold aren’t going to be paid for. The mad rush to finance a home for virtually anyone with a pulse inflated this real estate bubble. As real estate skyrocketed, consumers found a couple of billion in the old pants pocket of their homes and promptly spent it. Only now all the refinancing pockets are empty and the many loans defaulting will lose importance as the moral hazard powder keg continues to get packed. Papa Bear is in the house.
Mama, as portrayed by an ever-larger cost of energy, has been so inconspicuous that even the ever-vigilant Federal Reserve hasn’t seen her as a bear at all. To them she’s just a curiosity. Energy is off the Consumer Price Inflation [CPI] roster because, well it’s just not on the list and stop asking why. Unbeknownst to the Protectors of Price Stability is that energy is what produces widgets and, sooner or later the secret’s going to get out that, shhhhhh consumers do less consuming as energy costs continue to rise. The Fed thinks - if you distract the crowd long enough they’ll settle down and belly up to the financing window, at least until the duck tape and coat hanger wire shore things up. Baby Bear, isn’t he cute, has actually been seen as completely tame. What with “core” CPI near the Fed’s target rate of 2% you could even feed it by hand. Baby Bear is growing now, fed by his mother and salivating at Ben’s fiat-packed helicopter warming up on the pad. Of course Mama and Baby can’t be separated and when you measure them as a pair, you get a staggering 5.7% inflation rate; a bit more ominous that the two plush statistics advertised on TV.
The Bears have come home. Consumers lured to the precipice with free credit are now being inched over the edge by the steady rise in energy costs. Uncle Ben knows all those foreclosures will destroy the money everyone has already spent. The deluge (or airdrop) of fiat money necessary to stop that will merely paint over the river of bad debt; the pressure will not relent. When the tsunami of reality hits, it will be the closest threat of a depression we’ve seen with our own eyes.
Pretending that energy costs can be somehow separated from inflation, or that a depression-like collapse of real estate values won’t effect consumption, is surely an economic fairy tale. Our Goldilocks Economy is headed for the exit. Holding her hand won’t make the Bears any less hungry.